On August 20, 2025, in Hanoi, Green Climate Innovation Co., Ltd. (GreenCIC), in collaboration with Energy and Environment Consultancy Joint Stock Company (VNEEC) and South Pole (Switzerland), organized consultation workshop titled “Impact Assessment of Carbon Credit and Mitigation Outcomes Trading from Vietnam to International Markets.” This activity was held within the framework of the Technical Assistance Program “Impact Assessment of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System and Carbon Credits in Vietnam,” funded by the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) through the Southeast Asia Energy Transition Partnership (ETP). The program aims to support the Department of Climate Change (DCC), Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE), in developing Vietnam’s carbon market.
Photo: Delegates attending the workshop
The event attracted significant attention from stakeholders, with more than 100 participants joining both in person and online. Attendees included leaders of the DCC, MAE; representatives from other ministries and agencies such as the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Construction, the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI); international organizations; universities and research institutes; major emitting enterprises; and consulting and project development units engaged in carbon credit generation and international carbon credit trading.
In his opening remarks, Mr. Nguyen Tuan Quang, Deputy Director General of the DCC, emphasized that Vietnam’s carbon market legal framework has been gradually improved. The Law on Environmental Protection 2020 first introduced the concept of “Organization and development of the carbon market” in Article 139. Subsequently, the Government issued Decree No. 06/2022/ND-CP and its amendment Decree No. 119/2025/ND-CP, outlining a roadmap for market development, including a pilot phase through 2028 and full implementation starting in 2029. The plan also targets the pilot operation of a carbon exchange in 2025. The Prime Minister has approved the Scheme “Establishment and Development of Vietnam’s Carbon Market,” detailing key tasks and solutions to ensure the roadmap’s success. Regarding international cooperation, MAE is currently leading the drafting of a decree on the international transfer of mitigation outcomes and carbon credits, to be submitted to the Government in 2025, also following a pilot phase to 2028 and full implementation by 2029.
According to the plan, a registry system and carbon exchange will be developed, with a pilot carbon trading platform expected as early as 2025. MAE is also preparing the draft decree on international transfer of mitigation outcomes and carbon credits for Government review within 2025. Mr. Quang stressed that Vietnam’s carbon market development must be linked to international transactions under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, requiring policies that are both practical and forward-looking.
Photo: Mr. Nguyen Tuan Quang, Deputy Director General, DCC
Over the past period, UNOPS, through the ETP Program, has provided technical support to the DCC in assessing the impact of the emissions trading system and carbon credits. The research outcomes are an important basis for MAE to finalize the draft decree.
Speaking on behalf of the donor, Mr. John Robert Cotton, Deputy Director of the ETP Program, highlighted the importance of carbon markets as a climate change response tool, from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the new mechanisms of the Paris Agreement. He noted that over 70 carbon pricing initiatives have been implemented or are under development worldwide, covering nearly one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. According to Mr. Cotton, Vietnam’s participation in international carbon trading not only meets compliance requirements but also opens opportunities to mobilize climate finance, accelerate technology transfer, and move toward the net-zero target by 2050.
At the workshop, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Cong, Deputy Head of the Carbon Market Division, DCC, provided updates on the regulatory framework and roadmap for trading mitigation outcomes and carbon credits. According to him, the current draft regulations on international transfers of mitigation outcomes and carbon credits are being developed to govern transactions between Vietnam and international partners. The draft covers key mechanisms, including trading under Article 6.2, as well as outside Article 6.2 (such as programs and projects under Article 6.4 and independent carbon standards). It also outlines responsibilities for transfers and establishes rules for corresponding adjustments.
Ms. Roxanne Tan, International Carbon Market Expert at South Pole Group, shared international experiences in carbon credit management, drawing important lessons for Vietnam as it engages in this market. She stressed that a strong management framework must ensure transparency, predictability, and close alignment with NDC targets, while optimizing economic benefits from carbon credits. Drawing on international case studies from countries such as Ghana, Rwanda, Thailand, Cambodia, and Chile, these nations have implemented Article 6 management approaches such as: building legal frameworks for Article 6, establishing registry systems, leveraging existing crediting standards, identifying eligible activities, applying partial mitigation retention to avoid overselling, and, in some cases, imposing corresponding adjustment (CA) fees or benefit-sharing for mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development efforts. Ms. Roxanne also pointed out that international demand for carbon credits is rapidly increasing, from governments, businesses, and airlines under CORSIA, opening significant opportunities for Vietnam. However, to seize these opportunities, Vietnam needs to promptly identify eligible activity portfolios, determine the proportion of mitigation outcomes retained for domestic NDC implementation, set corresponding adjustment fees, and establish a long-term strategy beyond 2030 to ensure financial feasibility and attract investment. A transparent, clear, and stable management mechanism will be key to enhancing investor confidence, defining the value of Vietnam’s credits in the global market, and contributing to the Net Zero commitment by 2050.
Photo: Ms. Roxanne Tan, International Carbon Market Expert, South Pole
Ms. Nguyen Hong Loan, Project Team Leader/Climate Policy Expert at Green Climate Innovators Co., Ltd., presented options for managing the trading of carbon credits and mitigation outcomes from Vietnam to international markets.
Accordingly, the study developed and assessed nine scenarios based on two main factors: the portfolio of eligible activities for international transfer and the proportion of mitigation outcomes retained to ensure achievement of the national NDC. For supply, the study considered two options: (i) the S20 scenario, allowing trading only from 20 mitigation measures contributing solely to conditional NDC targets; and (ii) the S56 scenario, expanding to 56 measures contributing to both conditional and unconditional NDC targets. Corresponding trading caps were set at 90% for S20, and at two levels: 70% or 50% for S56 to manage overselling risk and safeguard national NDC goals. Price was identified as a key factor influencing scenario impacts. Price bands were divided into three ranges - high, medium, and low - for each buyer group. These ranges were presented in tables and figures, reflecting potential market fluctuations.
Other important factors, such as buyer prioritization, tax mechanisms, and transaction fees, were integrated into each scenario. Specifically, the study applied buyer prioritization based on partnership levels (e.g., partners with cooperation agreements given priority) and market demand (such as CORSIA), combined with three price bands (low, medium, high) for each buyer to reflect market volatility. Financial elements such as a 20% corporate income tax, 10% value-added tax (VAT), and a 2% transaction fee on revenue were also incorporated to ensure a comprehensive impact assessment.
Photo: Ms. Nguyen Hong Loan, Director of Green Climate Innovation Co., Ltd., Project Team Leader, Climate Policy Expert
Regarding the impact assessment results, Mr. Ho Cong Hoa, Impact Assessment Expert at the Academy of Policy and Development, stated: “Economic and social benefits are maximized under the expanded portfolio scenario S56, eligible for international transfer. Under this scenario, economic benefits from carbon credit trading could contribute an average of 0.43% annually during 2025–2030, while boosting investment, consumption, and employment.”
Mr. Hoa emphasized that setting trading caps is necessary to ensure corresponding adjustments under the Paris Agreement and to contribute to Vietnam’s NDC targets. Retaining 50% of credits could secure up to 62% of the unconditional NDC, whereas retaining 30% would result in 37.3%.
Photo: Mr. Ho Cong Hoa, Impact Assessment Expert, Academy of Policy and Development
Experts also recommended that Vietnam adopt a phased approach, starting with a cautious trading cap of 50%. As domestic mitigation capacity strengthens and confidence in meeting unconditional targets grows, the cap could be raised to 70% to fully achieve conditional NDC targets with international support. Additionally, applying a reasonable transaction fee of about 2% could increase state revenue from the carbon market, which should be reinvested into hard-to-abate sectors such as agriculture and forestry to ensure equity and enhance overall mitigation effectiveness.
Furthermore, policies encouraging businesses to invest in credit-generating measures in priority sectors should be considered to maximize NDC contributions, mitigate price volatility risks, and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese carbon credits in international markets.
